MTG Tactics Set 1 & 2 Booster Pack Average Values
Using the Auction Data information I have compiled the average values in gold for each of the Magic the Gathering Tactics booster packs. If you ever wondered which pack to buy this may help. The pack values based on the last 20 days including the most recent data from ( 05-20-2013 ) are as follows...
Set 1 Pack
Average Value: 103.95*
*Value is based on listing values not actual selling values
Set 2 Pack
Average Value: 81.00*
*Value is based on listing values not actual selling values
To find the value of a pack we must do some basic math and know some variables.
- How Many Cards Are In Each Pack? Answer: 14
- How Many Rares or Mythics are in Each Pack? Answer: 1 Rare or 1 Mythic
- How Many Uncommons are in Each Pack? Answer: 3
- How Many Commons are in Each Pack? Answer: 10
- What is the Chance of Getting a Mythic? Answer: Drop rate for mythics is 1 in 10.
- What is the Formula for Determining The Value of a Pack?
- Answer:
- 1 * ((10% Average Mythic Value) + (90% Average Rare Value))
- Plus 3 * Average Value of Uncommons
- Plus 10 * Average Value of Commons
Average Value of Rares & Mythics Explained.
Okay, so what does 1* ((10% Average Mythic Value) + (90% Average Rare Value)) actually mean? And why would I use 10% of the average value of the mythics and 90% average value of rares? I will illustrate how I am determining the value of a set 1 booster pack and the values of rares and mythics with some tables. This data was pulled on May, 6th 2012.
| Set 1 Mythics | Average Value |
|---|---|
| Angelic Avatar | 115 |
| Avatar of Woe | 197 |
| Black Lotus | 2,429 |
| Necropotence | 126 |
| Obliterate | 81 |
| Philosopher Sphinx | 88 |
| Reya Dawnbringer | 78 |
| Shivan Dragon | 216 |
| Time Warp | 507 |
| Tooth and Nail | 121 |
| Wildwood Colossus | 118 |
| Total Value | 4076 |
| Average Value | 370.55 |
| 10% of Value | 37.06 |
So what I am doing is taking the average value of each mythic then adding them up, I will then divide by the number of mythics in the data set to get the average. In this case the total value of these cards was 4076. There are 11 mythics in set 1 so my formula is 4076 / 11. Which gave me the average value of all the mythics 370.55. Finally, I must only factor in 10% of this value because the drop rate for mythics is 1 out of 10. So the "mythic" average value per pack is 37.06.
Using 10% of the value is a mathematical way to represent a 1 out of 10 chance. The best way to think about this is if you open 1100 set 1 booster packs, odds say you'll get 110 mythics (1 out of 10), the drop rate for each card is the same so you should get 11 of each mythic.
Now we must also find the average value of the rares because you can pull either a rare or mythic in each booster pack. Here is the data for all set 1 rares pulled on May 6th, 2012.
| Set 1 Rares | Average Value |
|---|---|
| Beacon Of Immortality | 53 |
| Bird of Paradise | 172 |
| Bloodshot Cyclops | 19 |
| Bogardan Hellkite | 45 |
| Bone Dragon | 51 |
| Captain of the Watch | 82 |
| Chronomancer | 10 |
| Clockwork Beast | 17 |
| Clone | 38 |
| Colossus of Sardia | 38 |
| Death Baron | 87 |
| Elvish Piper | 73 |
| Force of Nature | 21 |
| Goblin Chieftain | 104 |
| Grave Pact | 23 |
| Hail of Arrows | 26 |
| Headfirst | 12 |
| Howl of the Night Pack | 27 |
| Icy Manipulator | 25 |
| Inferno | 38 |
| Inspiring Captain | 25 |
| Keeper of the Hourglass | 32 |
| Lifeforce Attunement | 14 |
| Lord of the Pit | 35 |
| Magma Phoenix | 68 |
| Mahamoti Djinn | 24 |
| Master of the Wild Hunt | 84 |
| Mesa Enchantress | 93 |
| Might of Oaks | 36 |
| Mind Spring | 29 |
| Nightmare | 25 |
| Opposition | 25 |
| Polymorph | 24 |
| Rain of Arrows | 23 |
| Royal Assassin | 26 |
| Serra Angel | 53 |
| Silence | 73 |
| Soulfeeder | 20 |
| Spinning Sphinx | 23 |
| Tempest of Light | 19 |
| Uncanny Sense | 17 |
| Underworld Dreams | 88 |
| Volcanic Skin | 14 |
| Total Value | 1831 |
| Average Value | 42.58 |
| 90% of Value | 38.32 |
Here I found the average value for each set 1 rare card, then added them up, and divided by the number of rares to get the average rare value of 42.58. Then to get the final "rare" value I need to take 90% of the number (9 out of 10 chance) which gives us 38.32.
Next to find the total contribution of rares and mythics to each pack I need to add the "mythic" value and the "rare" value together which gives us, 37.06 + 38.32 = 75.38 . Another way to say it is, 10% of mythic + 90% of rare = 100% of mythic and rare contribution.
The next step is to find the total average value of all the uncommons and multiple that by 3 since there are 3 uncommons per pack. Don't worry I'm not going to post a huge uncommon table. If you want to see that you can visit the card listing page. The average value of uncommons on May 6th 2012 is 8.15. We then take that number and multiple it by 3 which gives us an "uncommon" value of 24.44.
Now we have the mythic & rare value & the uncommon value. So far our pack is worth 99.82 gold (75.28 + 24.44).
The last thing we need to find is the average value of all the commons and multiple it by 10. Again I'll refer you to the card listing page if you want to see the commons. The average value of all the commons is 3.13. Multiple that by 10 (the amount of commons per pack), and we get our "common" value of 31.30.
Finally we add all our numbers up to get the average value of a set 1 booster pack. 75.38 + 24.44 + 31.30 = 131.12 gold.
Did you find a flaw in my math? Do you know a better way? I'd love to hear from you, please send me your comments.
Want to download this excel sheet to see the math? You may download it here.
